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Iran prepares to attack Northern Israel
By James Lewis
Take an old-fashioned iron bar magnet and a flat piece of white paper with hundreds of scattered iron filings. As soon as the paper is placed on the magnet, all the particles align around the two separate poles of the bar’s magnetic field. Every iron particle becomes polarized around one of the two extremes.
This is what Obama and Jarrett have managed to achieve in the Middle East. It is not an accident. We know that the two-person cult of Obama-Jarrett have been secretly “negotiating” with the mullahs since the beginning of the Obama years. But time is running out, and everybody over there is planning for the post-O years.
For the Iranians that means moving as fast as possible to capitalize on a historic moment of Western weakness, collusion, and accommodation. The mullahs remember what happened when Ronald Reagan won over Jimmy Carter. They have less than two years to grab whatever they can.
That is why Iranian Revolutionary Guard troops are now moving through Syria into high mountain positions to attack the Golan Heights, the northeastern tip of Israel. Syrian Army forces and Shi’ites recruited in Pakistan and Afghanistan are working under the command of Iran’s Guards.
DEBKAfile has a detailed article on this. (Debka is linked to Israeli intelligence, but this kind of stuff they don’t kid about).
DEBKAfile February 18, 2015, 9:04 AM (IDT)
“Even in stormy winter conditions, the Syrian army continued Wednesday to press forward with Iranian, Hizballah and imported Afghani and Pakistani Shiite forces towards the Golan and Israeli lines. Their immediate objective appears to be the lofty Tel al-Hara mountain fortress, which the Syrian army lost to rebel forces. … Our military sources report that the fall of Tel al-Hara would lay Quneitra (on the Goland Heights) open to attack. …(In) Quneitra… Tehran plans to establish a major military outpost and forward command center up against Israel’s Golan deployment. This is the first instance of Syria’s Bashar Assad agreeing to pass a warfront to Iranian command.”
In response, Israel has conducted a successful decapitation strike across the border, killing half a dozen top Guard officers and half a dozen Hizb’allah planners. Syrian artillery has reportedly killed 200 Guards in a “friendly fire” accident -– but Israel probably knows how to penetrate Syrian battlefield electronics.
Of all the extremely dangerous events that are now gathering momentum in the region, the Iranian-Syrian drive against northern Israel is the most dangerous. The reason is simple. Israel has a sophisticated nuclear, WMD, and missile deterrent, to be used under military doctrines similar to our own. For rational nations, WMDs are a last resort, only usable when a threat is direct and existential. Iran has always played the crazy card, a big show of irrational fanaticism and rage. Maybe they really are crazy — nobody knows for sure.
The mullahs are now trying to push Israel to the wall –- which is when a Western-style deterrent doctrine comes into force. Ayatollah Khamenei, the “Supreme Guide,” has obviously decided this is the moment when America will not defend its former allies. Maybe Obama and Jarrett have actually told him so; maybe Iran has penetrated this supremely foolish and malignant administration. Whatever the case may be, Iran is moving military forces through Syria toward Israel. Iran is also winning power in Yemen (which controls the narrow entrance to the Red Sea). All these moves directly threaten Saudi Arabia and Egypt, as well as Israel and U.S. naval and air force assets in the region.
This is an enormous Iranian gamble, maybe a martyrdom gamble, following Khomeinist war theology.
This is therefore the most dangerous moment since the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962. It is a moment of unpredictable confrontation, with nuclear weapons in the offing.
Obama and the Iranians are gambling everything on the toss of a coin.
Israel does not have the manpower to match Iran, Syria, and Hizb’allah at the Golan border. If the Iranians stage a blitzkrieg against the Golan, using a force of fifty or more tanks now located in Syria, Israel may resort to unconventional weapons. These can range from massive electronic warfare to arming the Syrian Sunni rebels, to a wide range of WMD’s.
If the Golan becomes the flashpoint, a likely outcome is a huge regional war, pitting Shi’ite Iran against Sunni Arabs. Israel has long had contacts with the Saudis and Egyptians on how to respond to Iranian aggression. If Israel is drawn into regional chaos, it is likely to support the Sunni powers, who will need all the help they can get.
Iran has a Shi’ite martyrdom creed, which suggests it is trying to provoke an Israeli strike that will predictably enrage Obama and Western liberals, so that Iran can play the aggrieved victim. The Muslim world, which is 80% Sunni, may then back Shi’ite Iran.
The most intelligent form of preemption on the Golan is therefore the most invisible one. Big nuclear bangs are self-defeating. Silent strikes may work. There is now a range of unconventional weapons available to technically advanced nations. However, any local war can spread unpredictably around the Middle East.
Obama has brought us to the nuclear brink. It is vital to understand that this is not an accident. It is purposeful. It is a continuation of the Carter-Brzezinski strategy that put Ayatollah Khomeini into power forty years ago — the first Islamic Caliphate. The Obama-Carter strategy makes no rational sense at all, except perhaps in some drunken faculty lounge. The risks are enormous, and the potential for a major violent backlash against the United States and Europe is very great. Iran now has ICBMs that can reach Europe and soon, the United States.
The single biggest factor in this crisis is the vacuum of American power. For decades the United States was trusted to keep the peace in the Persian Gulf, where Persians and Arabs have been staring at each with implacable hatred for a thousand years, across fifty miles of water.
Obama has destroyed any trust in America. We have “community disorganized” the Middle East.
When Netanyahu comes to Washington in defiance of Obama, the Iranians and ISIS will cheer for Obama.
But maybe the American people will come to their own conclusions.
Armageddon in Syria?
By Jonathan Keiler
The Syrian city and province of Da’ara lie hard on the border between Jordan and Syria near the picturesque Yarmouk river gorge. It is an area of dramatic beauty and rugged terrain, difficult for both merchants and armies to cross. Da’ara no doubt emerged, like many ancient sites of importance (such asMegiddo, putative site of Armageddon), because its location allowed the inhabitants to control access into rich lands, making it a profitable and strategically valuable position. Indeed, the British-Arab General John Glubb Pasha called Da’ara the Therompylae of Syria. It still is today, which is why an Iranian-led army is now trying to bash its way through Da’ara, and from there, into Jordan and Israel.
When it comes to Iran much international diplomacy focuses on that country’s nuclear ambitions. Those concerns are very real, and for Israel, potentially existential. But Iran is not just after securing a nuclear arsenal. It is assiduously seeking to extend its conventional power throughout the region, from Yemen to Iraq. If Iranian-supported forces get through Da’ara, the mullahs will have advanced their ambitions one more step.
Today Da’ara is held by elements of what is left of the so-called Free Syrian Army. Presumably, these are the very people United States supports in the Syrian civil war, except that President Obama is busy forging a strategic alliance with Iran, which very much wants to see Da’ara fall.
The revolt against the regime of Syrian President Bashir Assad began in Da’ara. This gives the area even more importance, since its fall would give a psychological boost to Assad and his masters in Tehran. President Obama set a “red line” for Assad, then he didn’t, then he decided Assad had to go, and now he evidently doesn’t because he’s decided to ally the United States with Assad and Iran against ISIS. So now the rebels in Da’ara are being left to fend for themselves against a combined force of Assad’s Army, Hizb’allah, other Shia mercenaries, and their Iranian advisors. So far, the rebels are holding, though it is unlikely that they can do so for much longer.
While Assad’s goal may be to smash the Da’ara rebels, Iranian aims are much broader. In seizing Da’ara, Iran would control access into southern Syria, thus limiting the ability of American special forces, such as they are, to operate there, and effectively limit Jordanian involvement in the campaign against ISIS. Iran might not be opposed to Jordanian strikes on ISIS, which is in theory a common enemy, but would no doubt relish the ability to gain further leverage over American-led allied operations. And ultimately, Iranian/Syrian forces in Da’ara will threaten the moderate Sunni regime in Amman, which is almost certainly a long-term Iranian objective.
Even more critical to the Iranians is access to the Golan Heights. Iran has sought to install a Hizb’allah presence on the Golan Heights for some time now. Hizb’allah already poses a significant threat to Israel from Lebanon, but its political position in that country creates problems, as combat with Israel inevitably costs Lebanon dearly, a price which the Lebanese people are increasingly unwilling to pay. On the other hand, the Syrian Golan, which is a sparsely populated, heavily-fortified military zone, would be a near perfect launching point for Hizb’allah attacks into Israel.
Free Syrian forces in the northern Golan have clashed repeatedly with Assad’s forces around the mostly destroyed regional capital of Quneitra, which was the focus of fierce fighting in the 1973 Yom Kippur War. Israel has maintained a strong presence in the northern Golan since that time, making this area a tough one for Iranian/Hizb’allah encroachment. Israel annihilated a small joint Hizb’allah-Iranian foray into the northern Golan in January with an airstrike. Hizb’allah responded shortly afterward with a limited attack into Israel from Lebanon. The offensive into Da’ara is an Iranian move against the southern Golan following the check in the north.
The southern Golan offers opportunities to the Iranians that the northern Golan does not. It would give Iran a presence at the meeting point of Syria, Israel, and Jordan. It would also place the Iranians astride the Yarmouk River, which is the largest tributary of the Jordan, the vital water resource for Israel, Jordan, and the Palestinian-administered areas of the West Bank. Plus, the rugged terrain would provide opportunities for Iranian/Hizb’allah mischief.
In the early 1980s, I was a kibbutz volunteer on the southern Golan at Afik, before it was a vacation spot. Afik is only a few miles from the Ruqqad wadi (itself a tributary of the Yarmouk) and the Syrian border. Militarily, this area has been a backwater compared to the rest of the Golan, the gorge providing a natural anti-tank barrier. If anything, the area resembles southern Lebanon, where Hizb’allah has demonstrated it excels at a quasi-conventional warfare of anti-tank missile attacks, commando strikes and indirect rocket fire. The area still harbors gazelle and wild boar, which makes identifying intrusions all the more difficult. During my time there, an IDF field intelligence unit (which a cousin at one point commanded) used then state-of-the-art ground surveillance radars (mounted in typical make-do Israeli fashion on World War II era M3 half-tracks) to identify threats. Today, surveillance technology hasmuch improved, but so has the threat. Iran would like nothing better than to turn the southern Golan and its thriving nearby towns and kibbutzim into a new Lebanon-like front against Israel.
Iran’s moves to control the Syrian Golan are sometimes presented as an attempt to deter Israeli action against its nuclear program by providing additional launching points for Hizb’allah missiles. While to some extent this is probably true, it is also way too exculpatory. So far, despite more than a decade of intense speculation, Israel has not attacked Iran. Iranian deterrence (though Hizb’allah in Lebanon, the threat of terrorism, its own long-range missile forces, and diplomatic maneuvering) has so far worked adequately. The idea that a few more Hizb’allah rockets on the Golan would make a great deal of difference is quite a stretch. But why should Iran mind when its goals are described, even by its critics, in such a passive manner?
In reality, Iran is building a conventional threat against Israel that is immediate and real. An Israeli air campaign against the joint Syrian/Iranian/Hizb’allah offensive at Da’ara would likely frustrate the effort. That would also likely necessitate air strikes against Syrian anti-aircraft missiles, and perhaps dogfights against Syrian aircraft, all of which are under the effective command/control of Iran, if not manned by Iranian crews. But President Obama has effectively allied the United States with Syria and Iran in the campaign (such as it is) against ISIS. As part of that devil’s bargain, Syrian antiaircraft positions and aircraft cannot be molested by American flyers.
Were Israel to attack at Da’ara, Obama would no doubt see it as a direct assault on his own objectives in the area, thus making Israel a direct adversary of the United States, which is probably something he would relish. Thus, at the Da’ara gap is Israel presented with a true Hobson’s choice, to either attack with all the attendant risks, or to do nothing and let Iran into the Golan. Perhaps Armageddon begins at Da’ara, not Megiddo.
To become UN Sec General Obama must ‘Solve’ the Existence of Israel.
By James Lewis
February 10, 2015
Obama is basically a Marxist of the “Third World” variety, which means that he lives in the faith that some elite political minority can rule first the United States and Europe, and then the world. In Washington speculation is rife that the end of the Obama years is only the beginning of a run for UN Secretary General, a job he can fiddle into real power, using leftist and Muslim regimes from around the world to support him. Obama’s ambition runs his mind and his life. He can’t face the end of power.
After watching the man for almost a decade, this is the only ambition that makes sense of his actions. It explains his consistent favoritism for Muslims, no matter how radical or violent. It explains his surrender to Iran’s nukes, and his constant collusion with the Muslim Brotherhood, now in active civil war with Egypt’s President El Sisi. It explains his comfort with the medieval war theology of Islam, which is also a world-conquering faith.
Like all grandiose narcissists with uncontrollable ambitions, Obama figures he can somehow resolve all the internecine warfare between Shi’ites and Sunnis, between Persians and Arabs, Turks and Kurds, Copts and Salafists, and finally get all “the fifty-seven states” — 57 is the number of Muslim states in the UN — to vote for him as a messianic UN Secretary General.
At the UN General Assembly, Europe will vote for him because the Left runs the EU with an iron hand. The U.S. will vote for him when the next Democrat becomes president. Three hundred Obama staffers have already come out for Liz Warren, who will follow Obama’s orders when he runs for UN Sec General. South America will vote for him in the expectation of “redistribution” of wealth from developed nations to their utterly corrupt, failed regimes.
Israel is the only thing that stands in the way of Obama’s grandiose ambition. At least in his mind.
In the real world, of course, this is a delusion, because the Muslim world is riven by a hundred hatreds, Sunnis against Shi’ites, radicals against modernists, Arabs against Persians, on and on and on. If the phony Palestinian problem is solved tomorrow, Muslim wars will go on just as they have for more than a thousand years. The Saudis are more afraid of Iran than anybody else, because Iran wants to conquer Mecca and Medina in pursuit of its own war theology.
Obama and Jarrett — they are a classic “folie a deux,” a two-person cult — started the surrender to Iran at the start of this administration, while lying endless times about never permitting the mullahs to have nuclear weapons. But since 1979 the mullahs have been screaming every single day “Death to Israel! Death to America!” Liberals are cursed with a delusional inability to believe such threats, no matter how serious they are. Hitler made such threats. Tojo made such threats. Lenin and Stalin did. But history has no impact on liberal minds. Realists understand world-conquering threats all too well.
Israel has deep human sources in Iran, and understands that regime a lot better than we do. Our CIA has a perfect record of failing to predict hostile nuclear programs, starting with Stalin and going all the way to North Korea and Iran. The CIA does great electronic intelligence but notoriously bad human intelligence. Based on its sources in Iran, Israel takes the Iranian nuclear threat to be a clear and present danger to its existence. Iran preaches a genocidal war theology, just like ISIS and all the rest. The Saudis, who also understand the mullahs, also have deep human sources there, and also believe the nuclear threat is real.
Obama has personally abused and threatened Benjamin Netanyahu from the beginning of this administration. It hasn’t worked. Netanyahu is a man of conviction, and he’s faced tougher enemies on the battlefield than the biggest narcissist in the world.
We are seeing an unstoppable force gathering steam against an immovable object.
That is the real nature of today’s argument about Netanyahu’s desire to speak to the U.S. Congress, and Obama’s rage against any opposition to his nuclear surrender. Netanyahu sees his chance to talk to Congress and the American people as the last chance to stop suicidal appeasement to a fanatical regime that preaches suicidal warfare against its theological enemies. Obama is bound and determined to surrender to Iranian nukes, because that will give him the power to force Israel’s hand. The Iranian Crescent now surrounds Israel, and it directly threatens Egypt and Saudi Arabia as well. Obama’s every action has been designed to weaken Israel’s sovereignty, in collusion with the European Left, which just recognized Hamas as having standing at the European court in Geneva.
If Netanyahu can convince Congress and the American people that surrender to Iran is suicidal, he may be able to stop Obama’s appeasement express. He has to take the chance of infuriating Obama, because the alternative is the risk of genocide for his people. Netanyahu is a serious man.
The next few weeks will tell. Watch for fireworks, and watch for Obama’s famous rage to explode in public.
Sen. Paul Speaks at Values Voter Summit – October 11, 2013 – The ”war on Christianity” is being ignored by the mainstream media and the Obama administration, Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) charged Friday, addressing the global attacks on Christians around the world.
”From Boston to Zanzibar, there’s a worldwide war on Christianity,” Paul said to applause Friday when speaking at the Values Voter Summit in Washington, D.C.
”Christians are being attacked around the world, but you won’t hear much about it on the evening news because the answer’s not convenient,” Paul continued. ”It doesn’t fit the narrative we have been told about radical Islam. The president tries to gloss over who’s attacking and killing Christians. The media describes the killings as sectarian. But the truth is, a worldwide war on Christians is being waged by a fanatical element of Islam.”
Paul, an expected contender for the 2016 GOP presidential nomination who has been a strong opponent of too much foreign intervention, also praised the Muslim world’s historic achievements and said it can again promote modernism by policing their radical elements.
”For centuries, the Middle East was home to cultural and intellectual centers of ancient world. Math and science flourished in the Middle Ages. Tolerance and sophistication were the norm at one time in the Middle East,” Paul said. ”Islam carried the light of learning for centuries. They paved the way for our enlightenment. This history needs to be brought back to life again. Innovation in Muslim communities developed the magnetic compass, pens and printing.”
But he faulted U.S. policy — specifically aiding the Syrian rebels with links to Al Qaeda.
”Elsewhere in Syria, Islamic rebels have filmed beheadings of their captives,” Paul said. ”They’ve filmed themselves eating the heart of their enemy. Two Christian bishops have been kidnapped, and one priest was recently killed. These rebels are allies of the Islamic rebels that President Obama is now arming. We are now arming Islamic rebels who are allied with Al Qaeda that attacked us on 9/11. Does that make any sense at all?”
The audience responded, ”No.”
”American tax dollars should never be spent to prop up a war on Christianity,” Paul continued. ”But that’s what’s happening now across the globe. As Christians, we should take a stand and fight against any of your tax dollars funding any persecution of Christians.”
Paul cited a poll by Pew Research that found 21 percent of Egyptians, 15 percent of Jordanians, and 13 percent of Pakistani Muslims find terrorism acceptable.
”It’s a minority to be sure, but if you add up the numbers in just three countries…over 40 million Muslims sympathize with violence against Christians,” Paul said.
”Radical Islam will end only when Islam begins to police itself,” Paul added. ”Only then will knowledge [and] enlightenment begin to glow and grow — [and ] religious violence will recede.”